Note From ARecovering Operative

In 2016 the polls missed. In 2020 they missed again. In 2024 they underestimated Republicans in nearly every swing state. And in 2025 they missed the other way, by almost eight points in Virginia and New Jersey.

I started in politics running absentee and early-vote programs in Michigan and Wisconsin, states where elections are run town by town. You learn fast that the number on the screen is only part of the story. Who's left to count, where they live and when their ballots come in matter just as much.

So I built The Race Caller. It puts every race on one screen, with the ratings, the polls, the markets and the county math. It lets you ask "what if the polls are wrong again?" and see the answer. And it puts my picks on the record before the polls close, so you can hold me to them.

I'm not trying to replace the networks. They'll tell you who won. I want to show you why.

When I started this, it was just for me. Now it's for all of us.